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| Backcasting (Source: The Natural Step*) |
Visionary (backcasting) and holistic (systems) approach was used in dealing with urban challenges and building the framework for sustainability. The concept of “backcasting” is a way of planning which begins with the vision of what we want in the future, and then goes back to the present, figures out what we have to do to get there. Having first a desirable vision in mind is a powerful step to manifest it in reality. As visions provide inspiration and guidance for decision-making towards sustainability, they allow us to ensure that our actions and strategies aligned with the direction we want to head and as efficiently as possible.
Since backcasting starts with the final end, the image of the desired outcome, it usually refers to long time frames, where there is great uncertainty and less control over what may happen. Hence, the future vision may usefully be defined using principles rather than specifics (Outhwaite 2009). Backcasting does not describe for measurable and fixed targets and goals, but rather for flexible, evolutionary and continuously re-created visions.
“Backcasting is an opportunity to let go of the current reality for a moment and freely imagine what might be possible” (Outhwaite 2009). As forecasting mostly based on current trend, it tends to present a more limited range of options, hence stifling creativity and new possibilities, and more important, it projects the problems of today into the future. “When we start with problems, often the vision is limited to having fewer problems, or solving an isolated problem; it does not necessarily encompass how we can satisfy one’s needs more effectively, or how we can live rich and meaningful lives” (Hallsmith 2003). As Albert Einstein once said “the significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them”, backcasting is particularly useful when current trends are part of the problems that we are trying to tackle. Thus, though forecasting is very effective if we are happy with current situation, if what we want is a very different future than the one we are headed toward, that is when we need to backcast (Baxter et al. 2009).
In brief, backcasting is looking at the current situation from a future perspective, which allows complex problems to be approached by let us first simply focus on outcomes, then think backwards to identify numerous potential pathways to reach the desired outcomes. In turn, exploring many alternatives makes it easier to find solutions that best fit and optimize all of the parts and relationships within the system toward achieving these outcomes (Haines et al. 2005). Therefore, backcasting is a helpful methodology in planning for urban sustainability because of the complexity of urban challenges and the need to develop new ways of doing things to address them.
Backward thinking is the core of where to start in systems thinking, a systems view and comprehensive approach that can help us to design smart and enduring solutions to problems. Systems thinking is a holistic approach which encourages us to see the “whole” - the bigger picture, so that we can structure more effective, efficient and creative system solutions.
The systems view looks at the world in terms of relationships and integration, recognizing the essential interrelatedness and interdependence of all phenomena – physical, biological, psychological, social, and cultural (Capra 1988). “In order to understand what’s behind our sustainability challenges, we need to step back and look at the big picture, see the connections, identify the root causes of our problems and find the leverage points for change” (Baxter et al. 2009).
Systems approach attempts to widen the circle of understanding in order to comprehend the connections that exist between all things in the web of life. It is a continuing process that involves honoring the past, being present, looking ahead, and keeping future generations in mind (Newman and Jennings 2008). Identifying cause – and – effect relationships requires us to see not only bigger but deeper, further in all dimensions of space and time. The following quote by Grazia is a beautiful metaphor on contemplation through longer time frames to recognize patterns: “Imagine you want to shoot an arrow. The further back you pull the bowstring, the further the arrow flies. The same is true for our own understanding and vision. The further back we look into history, the further we can see into our future” (Grazia 2009).
The holistic approach towards sustainable urban development is a strategic thinking to address the complex challenges of our urban issues. Thus, urban sustainability visions should encompass an integrated and interdisciplinary framework in which cities are considered as parts of larger natural ecosystems and socio-economic communities.
(excerpt from my thesis - to be continued)
[*] More on backcasting at "The Natural Steps – Backcasting": http://www.naturalstep.org/backcasting
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